Author: David Adams

Source: St. Petersburg Times 

When Americans voted for George W. Bush in November 2000, they knew they were electing a man with deep ties to Texas oil. 

But six years later, a greener-sounding Bush is about to depart for a trip to Brazil, where he hopes to forge a biofuels partnership that officials believe could revolutionize America's fuel industry and transform its relations with Latin America.

Critics suspect the president's biofuels conversion is only superficial, a late effort to build a less oil-splattered legacy. U.S. officials, though, talk of a new era of "ethanol diplomacy," capable perhaps one day of rivaling the petro-dollars muscle of the oil cartel countries.

"This is transformational policy," said Gregory Manuel, the State Department's international energy coordinator who has quietly shuttled between Washington and Brazil in recent months negotiating a biofuels cooperation agreement.

Such is the level of intensity that Bush and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will meet twice this month, a rarity for even the closest U.S. ally. After they meet Thursday in Brasilia, Lula will come on March 31 to Camp David, where the biofuels pact may be finalized.

For years, Brazil tried in vain to persuade U.S. officials of the merits of ethanol, which had made the largest country in South America virtually energy self-sufficient.

"The price of oil for a long time didn't compel," said Donna Hrinak, U.S. ambassador to Brazil from 2002 to 2004. She recalls Brazil raising the issue in 2003. "Our response was, `We are working on the hydrogen car. We are happy with that and we'll see you later.'"

That began to change with the emergence since 1999 of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who is using his country's vast petroleum reserves to undermine U.S. influence in the region.

Bush got a taste of that firsthand in November 2005 when he attended a regional summit in Argentina that was marred by anti-U.S. riots stoked by Chavez. On his way back from the summit, Bush stopped in Brazil, where he got a much warmer reception.

At a barbecue, Lula asked his agriculture minister, Roberto Rodrigues, to make the case for biofuels to the Americans. Bush returned to Washington "all charged up" on Brazilian biofuels, recalls Allan Hubbard, the president's chief economic adviser.

Meantime, the president received a letter from his brother in Tallahassee. Florida had taken a beating from the 2005 hurricane season, sending gas prices soaring. The governor's contacts in Miami were touting Brazil as a model for energy independence.

Jeb Bush wrote to his brother in April, urging the president to implement "a comprehensive ethanol strategy for our country and our hemisphere."

Rather than buy oil from hostile nations such as Venezuela, which supplies about 12 percent of U.S. petroleum needs, Jeb Bush said the United States ought to buy biofuels from friendly countries such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as Central America and the Caribbean.

Jeb Bush was already deep in talks with the Brazilian ethanol industry about a joint partnership. In December, two weeks before leaving office, he co-founded the Interamerican Ethanol Commission to promote regional production. Rodrigues, who gave President Bush the biofuels lecture, was a co-signer.

In his State of the Union address in January, President Bush surprised many by setting a goal of 35 billion gallons of annual biofuels consumption by 2017, a sevenfold leap from current capacity. While the United States hopes to achieve most of that processing domestic corn and other plant material, Bush said imports would also be required.

But Bush's exuberance over ethanol may not be enough to overcome major political hurdles. Members of Congress may balk at opening up the heavily subsidized U.S. market, which is protected by a 54-cent-per-gallon ethanol tariff.

Some industry experts question whether ethanol really can substitute a major percentage of U.S. gasoline use. Brazil and the United States produce 70 percent of the world's ethanol, but ethanol represents just 2 percent of U.S. fuel consumption.

"Biofuels aren't going to bring us energy independence," said Charles Drevna, vice president of the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, which opposes federal mandates to stimulate alternative fuel use.